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KEYNOTE ADDRESS OF NATIONAL SECURITY ADVISOR AT DBX BAGHDAD 2008 AN ECONOMIC ESSAY
2009-01-17
You may wonder what National Security has got to do with a trade show. I will postpone the answer later on., thus, the National Security Advisor, Muweffeq Al-Rubey’ee, addressed the audience of DBX Baghdad 2008 at BIAP’s Convention Center on its inauguration day (5/12/08).
He proceeded, Sustained security improvement is manifested, since 1-1/2 years ago, through the apparent spectacular decline in violence, in number of martyrs, in number of criminals and in number of displaced families. Such is the criterion for sustained security improvement that is very remote from being temporary.
Before, we used to hear about militias. Nowadays, such militias are considerably dwarfed.
“Iraq’s chief enemies are Al-Qa’eeda and outlaws. Al-Qa’eeda used to hold tight control over various quarters of the capital, e.g. Heifa Street. Now, it is vanquished, not only tactically, but also strategically. However, the 10 % of its remnants is its most vicious and evilly shrewd members.
I recall Bremer’s era when we had only one battalion. After 3 years only, we control the greatest anti-terrorism mechanism in the Middle East. The summer of 2007 witnessed a phenomenon similar to that of “the Critical Mass in physics. It was the transformation from a horizontal expansion to a vertical expansion.
Notwithstanding that, to combat such 10 % having such heinous tributes, we resorted not to military operations but to intelligence tasks. We infiltrated their networks. Thus, we brought to a close their weird thinking of mediaeval ages.
Al-Rubey’ee cited a comparison between Basra and Detroit cities, both of 2 million inhabitants. Accredited 6- months old statistics indicate that occurrences of violence in Detroit are twice that in Basra.
We used to hear a lot about national resistance and honest resistance. We hardly hear about them nowadays.
In Al-Rubey’ee’s style of question and answer, he enquired, What were the factors that transformed security improvement into a sustained continuum? His reply: They were 3 factors.
The first factor is the Sehwa (the Awakening). The Sunnite society became enlightened of the prevalent catastrophe of Al-Qa’eeda within their midst. Recognizing it as an alien body with an alien ideology, they drove it away.
The second factor is the on-going Reconciliation Project with more and more containment of dissatisfaction amongst citizens.
The third factor is our interaction and cooperation with regional countries (Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey) coupled with an intelligence system against terrorism.
Our philosophy is that security improvement is conducive for business, particularly for SMEs. The security issue paves the path to economic issue. The golden opportunity for business, with both security and economy at their best, is knocking. It is timely ‘for the dough’, so to speak. If businessmen venture on projects right away at today’s prices, they will reap great profits 3 years later. Such an idea and subsequent economic elaborations are the outcome of my personal experience as a businessman 5 years ago.
Over the past 35 years, the private sector had been continually dwarfed by the ex-regime. A middle class business society is now emerging. The Iraqi government is now contemplating on measures for promoting the private sector, inclusive of privatization of some public enterprises.
Al-Rubey’ee discussed the current Global Financial Crisis and its impact on oil-dependent Iraqi economy. The global utilization of Iraq’s oil is, perhaps, on the decline, he declared.
What’s that got to do with national security? he asked again.
Al-Rubey’ee replied, Security is not exclusively a national categorization. There is industrial security, health security, social security, food security, etc. Therefore, to discuss the Global Economic Downturn, I advocate a scientific approach in order to sustain the reconstruction process of Iraq without postponing our other economic aspirations. This Global Economic Downturn has its negative impacts on Iraq, e.g. probable decreased international need for Iraqi oil with decreased oil prices for a period of up to 3 years. The consequence is decreased oil revenues. Such a loss in revenues can only be compensated after 1-1/2 year, i.e. in 2010.
Let’s assume our oil production in 2008 is 1000 bpd more than what it was in 2007. The United States may decrease its monetary support to Iraq in 2009 prompted by several factors, e.g. the current Global Financial Crisis and its increased concern for countries other than Iraq as well as decreased support from donor countries. As such, we will suffer a deficit, beyond our control, ranging between $5 – 10 billion.”
In his usual style, he again asked, “What’s the solution?
Al-Rubey’ee replied, We should not plan just for 2009, but for 2 - 3 years thereafter. Expenditures out of any excess money in hand should not be spent in one year, but be distributed over 3 years. Moreover, such expenditures should be confined on strategic items of direct welfare to citizens, rather than for political purposes.
“How can we bring such a deficit to a close? It could be brought to a close through recourse to the Central Bank of Iraq, but only after sober consultations with economic experts, not politicians. It could be through issue of bonds with 3 years maturity. As a remedy, we do not recommend loans from the International Bank; they may be in violation of our Constitution and / or a pretext by the Bank to impose its wills on the country. Other governmental measures to combat the deficit are:
- Taxes and customs duties on non-essential items
- Privatization of some public enterprises. This may save about one billion dollars.
- Focus on purchase of national products
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